Climatology for Albuquerque International Sunport (KABQ)
Forecasting for a location without context to the local geography, terrain and past observations is unwise. Therefore, prior to each new city in the WxChallenge, we analyze the climatology to get a better idea of the local factors that may impact the weather. This is one of the many reasons why the NWS uses the Weather Forecast Office model rather than forecasting from an office in Washington, DC.
Topography and Geography
Albuquerque, New Mexico is located near the center of state, along the Rio Grande. The Albuquerque International Sunport (KABQ) is located within the city, adjoining Kirtland AFB on the south side (map). Despite being in the Rio Grande Valley, KABQ is over a mile above sea level at 5,310 ft according to the Local Climate Data.
If you look at the topographical map below, you’ll see the close proximity of the mountains to the east of KABQ. The Sandia and Manzano ranges play an important role in the weather of Albuquerque, especially with an easterly flow. A higher resolution terrain map denotes the dividing feature between the ranges, Tijeras Canyon, which can act as a funnel for easterly winds approaching KABQ.
Albuquerque, New Mexico is located near the center of state, along the Rio Grande. The Albuquerque International Sunport (KABQ) is located within the city, adjoining Kirtland AFB on the south side (map). Despite being in the Rio Grande Valley, KABQ is over a mile above sea level at 5,310 ft according to the Local Climate Data.
If you look at the topographical map below, you’ll see the close proximity of the mountains to the east of KABQ. The Sandia and Manzano ranges play an important role in the weather of Albuquerque, especially with an easterly flow. A higher resolution terrain map denotes the dividing feature between the ranges, Tijeras Canyon, which can act as a funnel for easterly winds approaching KABQ.
 |
| The
topographical map above shows Albuquerque, NM situated in the Rio
Grande Valley, immediately west of the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Courtesy of John Hopkins University |
Unlike the previous two WxChallenge cities, KABQ is generally arid,
with low dew point temperatures most of the year. Large temperature
ranges are normal, though at the high altitude, extreme temperatures are
not common.
Winds
Wind is a recognized forecasting challenge at KABQ with the terrain effects being a large factor. Because the WxChallenge for KABQ spans parts of February and March, a wind rose for both months is shown below. Please note that the ring intervals are different on the two images.
 |
| Wind
rose for KABQ for February (left) and March (right). In February,
wind is prominent from the North and Northwest, while in March, the
distribution is more even on the western half. Courtesy Natural Resources Conservation Service |
In
February, the most common wind is northerly, occurring about 14% of
the time. Northerly winds under 6.5 kts (yellow and black) occurs less
than 5% of the time. The most common interval for a northerly wind
(6%) is between 6.5 and 10.5 kts. Northerly winds above 10.5 kts
(blue/green/cyan) occurred less than 5% of the time, and less than 1%
being stronger than 16.5 kts (green). KABQ does not average northerly
winds >21.5 kts in February.
It is worth noting the absence of wind from the NE, which is an effect of the Sandia Mountains that reach over 10,000’. However, note the strong E and ESE winds at KABQ. Although the E and ESE winds are generally less common than the northerly winds, when they do occur, they are more likely to be over 16.5 kts. This is also a likely terrain effect, as KABQ is just west of the mouth of the Tijeras Canyon, which is known to create gap winds.
It is worth noting the absence of wind from the NE, which is an effect of the Sandia Mountains that reach over 10,000’. However, note the strong E and ESE winds at KABQ. Although the E and ESE winds are generally less common than the northerly winds, when they do occur, they are more likely to be over 16.5 kts. This is also a likely terrain effect, as KABQ is just west of the mouth of the Tijeras Canyon, which is known to create gap winds.
In
March, there is a more even distribution of winds on the western half
of the wind rose. Northerly winds are still the most common (11%),
but all other wind directions with a western component occur between 6%
& 9% of the time. A straight southerly wind occurs about 10%
of the time. E & ESE winds are still infrequent, but of those
winds, a large portion is >16.5 kts. Northeasterly winds remain
low and infrequent in March.
The
NWS Weather Forecast Office in Albuquerque studied the wind frequency
during different periods of time of day. As discussed in this paper
by Michael Ford, strong east winds are most likely during nighttime
periods. Here are the wind roses for February and March at different periods.
According to the Local Climate Data, the highest recorded wind speeds at KABQ during February and March are 43 and 41 knots, respectively.
Temperature
As alluded to previously, KABQ has larger swings in daily temperatures on average than the previous two maritime locations. Studying the daily almanacs for the scheduled forecast days (Feb. 27, Feb 28, Feb 29, Mar 1, Mar 5, Mar 6, Mar 7, Mar 8), you can see an average of a 24°F difference from the average high to the average low. During this period, the average high and low rise slightly from 56°F - 33°F at the start of the period to 58°F - 34°F by the end of the period.
For each of those forecast days, the record highs chronologically are: 74°F, 74°F, 75°F, 74°F, 73°F, 78°F, 79°F, & 76°F (15-20°F above average).
As alluded to previously, KABQ has larger swings in daily temperatures on average than the previous two maritime locations. Studying the daily almanacs for the scheduled forecast days (Feb. 27, Feb 28, Feb 29, Mar 1, Mar 5, Mar 6, Mar 7, Mar 8), you can see an average of a 24°F difference from the average high to the average low. During this period, the average high and low rise slightly from 56°F - 33°F at the start of the period to 58°F - 34°F by the end of the period.
For each of those forecast days, the record highs chronologically are: 74°F, 74°F, 75°F, 74°F, 73°F, 78°F, 79°F, & 76°F (15-20°F above average).
The record lows for the forecast days chronologically are: 15°F, 9°F, 22°F, 9°F, 9°F, 12°F, 10°F, & 18°F (15-25°F below average).
On the other side of extremes, record high minimum temperatures chronologically are: 46°F, 52°F, 47°F, 50°F, 50°F, 44°F, 46°F, & 51°F (15-20°F above average).
On the other side of extremes, record high minimum temperatures chronologically are: 46°F, 52°F, 47°F, 50°F, 50°F, 44°F, 46°F, & 51°F (15-20°F above average).
Record low maximum temperatures chronologically are: 37°F, 27°F , 42°F, 26°F , 36°F , 37°F , 35°F , & 41°F (20- 30°F below average).
In comparison to KPVD, the record highs and lows are closer to the daily average highs and lows, despite the daily temperature swing being greater. Forecasters should expect a large temperature range, but should be wary when MOS approaches the records.
Precipitation
Winter
precipitation is infrequent at KABQ, and the daily almanacs show an
average rainfall of .02” for all days in the period, except 1 (March 6th at .01”). Chronologically, the record rainfall
for each day in the forecast period is: .28”, .11”, .80”, .38”, .25”,
.09”, .35”, & .48”. In February, KABQ only averages 3.8 day
recording >= .01” of precipitation, and just 4.9 days in March.
Higher precipitation events are even less common: 1.6 days (February
& March) of >= .10” of precipitation and .2 days
(February & March) of >=.50” precipitation.
As you can see from the climatology, for March 2nd, the lowest temperature at KABQ on record is just 9°F, while the warmest low temperature on record for the same date is 50°F. With a basic understanding of the climatology, we'll now take a look at the big picture on March 1st.
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