Forecast Bust

INTRODUCTION

On March 1^st, 2012, most eyes following the US weather forecast were trained on the potential for a severe weather outbreak over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys.  Those of us participating in the WxChallenge, however, were splitting our attention from that forecast to the one over Albuquerque, New Mexico.  The Albuquerque International Sunport (KABQ) was one five locations selected for the Spring 2012 WxChallenge.  The WxChallenge is an online competition among meteorology undergraduate and graduate students, faculty, and alumni.  The competition requires competitors to forecast four parameters daily: high temperature, low temperature, highest 2 minute wind speed, and 24-hr precipitation.  Competition is tight, so a forecast off by a few degrees quickly sinks a competitor’s standing in the game.

One key factor in the competition is that the forecast periods run from 06Z to 06Z.  For this case, the local time equivalent at KABQ was 11PM MST to 11PM MST.

Forecast period for KABQ, including local (MST) and UTC (Zulu) time with daytime/nighttime distinction.  Sunrise on March 2nd at KABQ was about 6:30 AM MST, or 1330Z.  Sundown was about 6:00 PM, or 01Z.

 On the final day of the first week forecasting at KABQ, March 1^st, competitors submitted their forecasts for the weather on Friday, March 2^nd.  As always, my class at Penn State reviewed the synoptic scale forecasts earlier in the day, and then broke each parameter down, recommending specific forecasts for the low & high temperatures, wind speed, and precipitation.  As it turns out, the low temperature forecasts were a bust and several of us racked up the points as a result.

This post will review this specific case, focusing on some synoptic factors that had we not missed, may have led to more appropriate forecasting.  Before we review the big picture on March 1^st, we’ll review the climatology of KABQ to set a strong forecasting foundation.

 

Page 2: KABQ Climatology